State space models for forecasting water quality variables: An application in aquaculture prawn farm

Joel Dabrowski (CSIRO); Ashfaqur Rahman (CSIRO); Andrew George (CSIRO); Stuart Arnold (CSIRO); John McCulloch (CSIRO)

A novel approach to deterministic modelling of diurnal water quality parameters in aquaculture prawn ponds is presented. The purpose is to provide assistance to prawn pond farmers in monitoring pond water quality with limited data. Obtaining sufficient water quality data is generally a challenge in commercial prawn farming applications. Farmers can sustain large losses in their crop if water quality is not well managed. The model presented provides a means for modelling and forecasting various water quality parameters. It is inspired by data dynamics and does not rely on physical ecosystem modelling. The model is constructed within the Bayesian filtering framework. The Kalman filter and the unscented Kalman filer are applied for inference. The results demonstrate generalisability to both variables and environments. The ability for short term forecasting with mean absolute percentage errors between 0.5% and 11% is demonstrated.

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