Accepted Papers

Deep Uncertainty Quantification: A Machine Learning Approach for Weather Forecasting

Bin Wang, Jie Lu, Zheng Yan, Huaishao Luo, Tianrui Li, Yu Zheng and Guangquan Zhang


Weather forecasting is usually solved through numerical weather prediction (NWP), which can sometimes lead to unsatisfactory performance due to inappropriate setting of the initial states. In this paper, we design a data-driven method augmented by an effective information fusion mechanism to learn from historical data that incorporates prior knowledge from NWP. We cast the weather forecasting problem as an end-to-end deep learning problem and solve it by proposing a novel negative log-likelihood error (NLE) loss function. A notable advantage of our proposed method is that it simultaneously implements single-value forecasting and uncertainty quantification, which we refer to as deep uncertainty quantification (DUQ). Efficient deep ensemble strategies are also explored to further improve performance. This new approach was evaluated on a public dataset collected from weather stations in Beijing, China. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed NLE loss significantly improves generalization compared to mean squared error (MSE) loss and mean absolute error (MAE) loss. Compared with NWP, this approach significantly improves accuracy by 47.76%, which is a state-of-the-art result on this benchmark dataset.

Download

How can we assist you?

We'll be updating the website as information becomes available. If you have a question that requires immediate attention, please feel free to contact us. Thank you!

Please enter the word you see in the image below: