Forecasting the Evolution of Hydropower Generation
Fan Zhou: School of Information and Software Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China ; Liang Li: School of Information and Software Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China ; Kunpeng Zhang: University of Maryland; Goce Trajcevski: Iowa State University; Fuming Yao: China Energy Investment Co.; Ying Huang: China Energy Investment Co.; Ting Zhong: University of Electronic Science and Technology of China; Jiahao Wang: School of Information and Software Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China ; Qiao Liu: School of Information and Software Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China
Hydropower is the largest renewable energy source for electricity generation in the world, with numerous benefits in terms of: environment protection (near-zero air pollution and climate impact), cost-effectiveness (long-term use, without significant impacts of market fluctuation), and reliability (quickly respond to surge in demand). However, the effectiveness of hydropower plants is affected by multiple factors such as reservoir capacity, rainfall, temperature and fluctuating electricity demand, and particularly their complicated relationships, which make the prediction/recommendation of station operational output a difficult challenge. In this paper, we present DeepHydro, a novel stochastic method for modeling multivariate time series (e.g., water inflow/outflow and temperature) and forecasting power generation of hydropower stations. DeepHydro captures temporal dependencies in co-evolving time series with a new conditioned latent recurrent neural networks, which not only considers the hidden states of observations but also preserves the uncertainty of latent variables. We introduce a generative network parameterized on a continuous normalizing flow to approximate the complex posterior distribution of multivariate time series data, and further use neural ordinary differential equations to estimate the continuous-time dynamics of the latent variables constituting the observable data. This allows our model to deal with the discrete observations in the context of continuous dynamic systems, while being robust to the noise. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets from a large power generation company consisting of cascade hydropower stations. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively predict the power production and significantly outperform the possible candidate baseline approaches.
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